atolnon | [Politics] Or, Obama Can't Lose

Before I became disillusioned with much of the process, I was something of a political junkie. According to the late Hunter S. Thompson, politics can be a seasonal thing. It's exhausting, and can easily become a cause in itself. This is where all those evil cynical old politicians come from, of course. They sell out to the greedheads and Swine and leave the rest of us wondering how things could get so bad. I was pretty cynical myself, during the Clinton administration, but honestly, nothing could prepair me for what was coming next.

Fast forward to now, and while I don't have the political bug in full force, I'm beginning to get the chills and cold sweats associated with press conferences and the latest breaking blog news. My knees don't ache with the next election cycle, but I assume it's only a matter of time.

With Bush in the White House, there was only so much news that I could keep up with before things like deteriorating civil rights, outed CIA agents, and body counts got to me. I don't want to say that it was all the same, but it certainly was more of the same. With the upcoming election, I mentioned off-hand to some fellow political junkies that the feeling amoung my peers had quieted somewhat considering that no matter who was elected, it wasn't going to be Bush. After the protests, the blogosphere that I frequented at the time, and the hyperbolic, almost too-stupid-to-be-believed antics of the former crowd, it seemed that it really didn't matter. We'd become cynical, but even McCain wasn't going to be as bad as Bush had been.

"Don't say that." said Matt. "McCain would be even worse. Bush might of been a man-child in the hands of a series of corrupt Neocon puppeteers, but McCain, well, McCain doesn't give a fuck about domestic policy. When he says, '100 years of war', he really believes it. George Bush Jr. might of been a puppet of neocons, but McCain is a neocon."

In his estimation, which I happen to believe, Obama really isn't going to lose this election though. Both Clinton and Obama will be able to leverage nearly a total base, plus just about anyone who would normally of voted Republican based on certain key issues where the weight of the last eight years is just too heavy to bear. The media gives McCain his coverage, because he's the candidate of a major party, the incumbant party, in fact. But looking at how the media is already in a flurry about the two Democratic candidates, it's hard to believe that this isn't the real election right here. You've basically got your flavors of Democrat at the moment, and I hope you like 'em. Personally, I do, and even though I'd be much happier with Obama in the White House, having Clinton wouldn't hurt my feelings too bad.

That's just the thing, though. I'm not sure Obama can lose. Figuring her best case scenerio, which was based on a chart I still need to snag*, and giving states that he assumed would go for Obama a huge swing in Clinton's direction, he still beat her in terms of sheer delegate might, which is what counts in this case.

Now, I'm not so up on my politics that I can make an assertion like 'Obama will win.' Matt was certainly convincing, and seemed to have his data in order, but he's been wrong before. Politics is a tricky animal, after all. But, even so, it's likely to be a historic election no matter what. I'm pretty sure the Boomers are on their way out, and I'm not sad to see them go. Their cynical political antics have fucked us, and we'll feel the brunt of their screw-ups for a long time to come. But first women president, or first black president, I'm actually optimistic for the first time in a long time regarding our political landscape. I'm beginning to feel like things might actually get better.

*The chart is a political write-up of regions, not by state but geographically and culturally. For example, the Appalachians has one, while the region by the Mississippi ( I believe referred to as 'Big Muddy' ) has one, while places like Northern Maine and western grasslands tend to share one. States are then overlaid on this, and you tend to get a really good representation of voting trends. I'll have to bug Matt for a link.